‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Availability.
The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's households.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a official of the an industry group.
Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are adopting coal and wood and induction stoves to keep their operations going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a western metro, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their gas stocks have shrunk with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers report a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Government Stance
Yet, the officials states there is no shortage.
India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.
Approximately a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".
"Some panic booking and accumulation has been sparked by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.
Widening Concern
Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the text reads.
According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.
India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on vessel tracking and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The real vulnerability is LPG, experts note.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.
Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."
What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the common threat of panic buying.
An industry representative alleges price gouging.
"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.
